Thursday, December 1, 2016

My Reminiscences - Part One, the early years

REMINISCENCES                    March 2016-03-06

At the grand old age of 72, I have decided to sit down and try and write some memories of my life. This is in no way meant to be an autobiography, but just a collection of episodes that I can remember. I am also going to include some things about the family that I was told by my parents.

In Sudan during the war
My Dad was working for the Sudan government as a liaison officer between the Brits and the Sudanese. There was no radio service there in those days. So Dad scrounged a transmitter from the military (I think) and gave primitive news broadcasts on the state of the war. I remember that he told me that he allowed Michael to read the news when the British forces entered El Alamein, he was about twelve at the time.

It was also around this time that Michael got Meningitis and nearly died. He was at school in Egypt at Alexandria College, and there was a flu epidemic. He was in bed in the sick bay along with other boys when it became apparent that something was seriously wrong as he was barely conscious. There was a new drug from May and Baker called just ‘M and B’ which had been effective against pneumonia, and (so my memory of the story goes) Dad arranged for some to be flown in from England in an RAF plane. Anyway, Michael survived, luckily for him and the world of mathematics.


At home with Mum
When I was about 3 or 4, I can remember sitting with my mum in the kitchen and eating cream crackers with cheese for lunch. To make it more interesting, we used to add salt and pepper to them, and cocoa to drink. Selma of course would be having lunch at school. I used to share a bedroom with Selma until I got too old for that. The room was at the far end of our bungalow, next to the room that Mum and Dad shared. If we wanted to attract Mum’s attention after we had gone to bed, we used to shout out in unison, because it was quite a long way to the kitchen or living room.


Lodgers
Later on Selma and I had a bedroom each, and the room that we had shared was used for visitors, or lodgers. We had a series of lodgers staying with us from Kuwait, Sudan and Iraq. I think this was arranged via some kind of service for foreign students that Dad was connected with.  I remember one from Kuwait who was very quiet, and studied art. We had one or two of his paintings hanging up. Another from Iraq was called Ishaq, and studied child development or something. He gave us some advice when Julian (I guess) was being fussy with his food.


Scalding
When I was very young (about 4 I think), I came in from the garden trailing something I had found as a ‘tail’, I was high stepping, and trod on the lead from the kettle which was long and dangling down. It had only just boiled, and emptied a stream of very hot water down my back. I ended up spending several days in bed, lying on my stomach, with dressings on my back. Selma used to come and feed me soup or something easy to eat.


Primary School
I went to primary school when I was four. I trotted along with Selma, down Bush Lane (where our house was), up the hill towards Send church, then along the appropriately name Sandy Lane to school.  I was friendly with a girl called Sheila Burns, who lived on the road towards Guildford. We sometimes played in the field opposite her house. I was somewhat miffed that she could run faster than me. One of my other friends was Richard Denyer, who lived in the first house of the council estate up Send hill. His mother used to come to our house and do my mum’s hair. My mother also had a cleaning lady called Mrs. Mussel who had several kids, including Sylvia who had ginger hair and freckles (didn’t fancy her though). Her husband Ken used to work at Unwins the printer’s toward Woking. She had a son also called Kenny who was blind in one eye, and this led to his being killed in a motorbike accident near Send Church, where Christine lived.

I can’t remember a lot about school lessons, though I do remember helping other kids learn to read. I also remember getting a multiplication wrong, and the maths teacher Mr. Donaldson was so surprised that he thought I was having a joke.


Visit of Sayed El Mahdi
One sunny day we had a visit from Sir Sayed Abdul Rahman El Mahdi (a descendent of the Mahdi), along with his entourage. He was dressed in Arab clothes.  We had tea on the lawn (cucumber sandwiches), and he beckoned me to sit on his lap, and gave me a crisp new pound note – a whole pound! That was a lot of money then for a small child – I was well under ten years. My parents later took me to a toy shop in Woking to spend it. At first I picked a large shiny red wooden train, but when I realised that was going to take almost all the money, I opted for something cheaper.


The Peanut King
We used to get various interesting visitors from the middle east who my Dad had worked with. One time he introduced me to someone from Egypt or the Sudan who he called the ‘Peanut King’. He was apparently very big in peanuts, so we gave him some that we had in the house, and he pronounced them as very good.


Real cotton at school
At primary school we were studying how cotton was grown, and at the time my Dad was in the Sudan, so he sent me a box containing some real cotton plants, complete with balls of cotton in them. This caused some excitement at school when I took them into the class, as none of us had ever seen anything like it.


The De Selincourts
My parents had some friends who lived not far from us in Send called Michael and Peggy De Selincourt (actually I’m not sure they were married). They were a very unorthodox bohemian couple, well educated and Oxford English. Michael had worked at NPL (National Physical Laboratory), but, as far as I could gather, been retired early because of his Communist leanings. They lived about a couple of miles away near Ripley in a rambling, home built bungalow (a bit like ours), which was referred to as ‘Hangover’. I’m not sure this was the official address, but it was what I always knew it as. The clue to its name may be illustrated by Michael showing us his private still, hidden away in an outside cupboard, and made no doubt with bits of equipment from NPL. When I first learnt to ride a bike I was so excited by my new freedom to roam (as I saw it) that I rode over to their house. They were somewhat surprised when I turned up out of the blue (I was about nine I guess). I remember a party that I was invited to, full of Oxford educated physicists, and for the first time in my life tasting homemade mayonnaise (after my mum explained what it was). Pretty exotic for the time.
They had a son, Malcolm, who was about the same age as Michael and Patrick, and I remember when he turned up in a three wheeled Bond mini car, and demonstrated why it didn’t need a reverse gear by spinning it round in circles in our drive.


Lyon’s corner house
I can still recall being taken, when I was quite young, by my Mum to Lyon’s Corner House in London. This was considered a big deal – I very rarely ate out until many years later. The various food offerings were presented in little boxes fronted by plastic lift up panels, so you chose what you wanted and self served. I was so excited; I spilled some of the bowl of tomato soup that I clutched at. This was a whole new experience you understand.


Xmas with Uncle Frank
My mum's brother Frank, who was very tall, had a first wife called Vrairose, she was Austrian I think. She was very short, as was his second wife Marie, who was Scandinavian. After Vrairose died Frank visited us at Christmas a couple of times. I remember those as especially enjoyable. He was a very nice man, and brought me presents of the 'Buffalo Bill Annual'. I remember he told my mum that he didn't know what to buy a boy of my age, but he chose just the right thing. I absolutely loved them, they were bright, colourful, and full of exciting stories and articles - useful things like how to chop logs and ride horses.


West Wittering  and Littlehampton
We didn't travel a lot in those days, but sometimes we would take a trip to the south coast. The nearest places were West Wittering  and Littlehampton. Chiefly I recall those visits as excuses to sit on the beach and drink Tizer. Exciting times. I think a donkey ride was involved once. When I was really young my Dad didn't have a car, but a bit later some money must have come in from somewhere because a new shiny green Ford Prefect arrived amid much excitement. Registration TPA 441, it was one of the cheapest cars on the market, but it was amazing to us and enabled trips like those to the south coast to be possible.



The garden shed
Our house had originally been a couple of rough buildings used for working in by the previous owners. My dad and friends joined them up with a veranda in between, so it was a pretty long bungalow – a good 50 feet or so. Behind, towards the rear hedge and between the orchard and the ‘rough’ lawn (as opposed to the smart one with rose borders) was a large shed – I guess also built by the previous owners? This had various uses over the years, as we had quite a large workshop with adjacent garage built at the front of the house. There was also a mini shed at the back of the large shed where the lawn mower was kept. So the big shed was used as a studio flat, with a bed settee, a sink and small cooker, and an inside/outside toilet in a mini porch. Patrick and Christine lived in it for a while when they were first married, and later my mum let it out to a couple called the Birds. I was quite friendly with Fred Bird; he introduced me to some jazz artists like Stan Kenton and Ella Fitzgerald. He also helped me with my model aircraft, and flew my first powered control line plane. It crashed on landing and broke into several pieces, but I quite happily repaired it. It was never quite the same though. The Birds later moved into the flat at the end of our house that my mum had converted after my Dad departed – to provide a bit of income.  When I was about 15 my mum let me use the shed for myself, and at one time I turned it into a chemistry lab full of equipment.

The Lebanon
When I was coming up for 9 years old we went to the Lebanon for about 3 months in the summer. My dad was involved in something there for a while, and I went out with my mum. I can’t remember Selma being with us. We travelled by train to Paris, then caught an overnight train to Venice – no sleeper, just in a compartment. Then we went by boat for 5 days to Beirut. It was an Italian ship, a bit like a modern cruise. The food was good, and I really enjoyed the journey. I made friends with another boy and we spent time together, went to watch a film in the on board cinema, but as it was in French or Italian, we didn’t understand it. We stopped in Brindisi I think, and Alexandria, where we watched ‘gully gully’ men doing magic tricks on the quay below us. We threw a few coins down to them. We went on shore there to meet some friends of my parents, and went to a famous ice cream parlour where I had the best ice cream I had ever tasted.

In Beirut it was hot. When we arrived aunt Najla and her mother were cooking ‘mashei’ – stuffed vegetables. The day after we arrived I was woken early and taken on a scout’s camping trip by ‘Micho’, my elder cousin for a few nights. I recall walking in the mountains with the smell of wild herbs. Because I was missing school, I was put in a girl’s school where they taught in English. The girls were 2 or 3 years older than me, so I was a bit overwhelmed, but got on OK.

After a while, we went up to a house in the mountains, where it was cooler. Outside the house was a mulberry tree, and I used to climb up it to pick the mulberries.

On our return to England we made the same journey, but this time we had a sleeper compartment on the train from Venice.


Boarding School
When I came back from the Lebanon at nine years of age, my Mum and Dad were finding me a bit hard going, so I was packed off to boarding school for two years – at Dane Court, near Pyrford. The original plan was for me to stay longer, but Dad ran out of funds after a couple of years, so I was shifted to Woking Grammar when I was eleven. He had some thoughts of putting me in for a scholarship to Winchester, but I wasn’t that keen on moving again, especially after we visited Winchester and I discovered that it was fairly primitive – they ate from wooden plates! (probably quite trendy now). Also, I don’t think I worked hard enough – everything at school was too easy.
Going to Dane Court was quite a process – we had to go to Harrods in London to buy my school clothes, which included a brown corduroy outfit for winter (shorts and blouson), and red blazer and grey shorts for summer. Also a specified collection of socks, underwear etc. We also had to get the famous tuck box which later led life as my toolbox, and now Bev has tried to resurrect it as a bit of furniture. At school it was used, quite properly, for tuck – sweets and biscuits and a few nick nacks. It was lockable so no other pesky kid could snaffle the tuck. In addition, there was full sports kit including a hockey stick. We played sports every afternoon, and I used to travel to other prep schools to play soccer and cricket for the school (there were only about 70 pupils, so competition wasn’t strong). This was also the height of my athletics career, when I won the under eleven and a half cup (don’t ask me why it was that age). It was touch and go, because I won the sprints, but wasn’t good at high jump. I quite enjoyed prep school, as I made good friends and quite liked sleeping in a dormitory. The worst thing was the food, as we had to eat everything on the plate before we could leave. I have bad memories of sitting alone in the dining hall faced with a plate of congealing fish in white sauce which I hated. Eventually a dinner lady took pity on me and removed it. Although I enjoyed the terms, I did miss home, and was always glad the end of term.

One day I was told to go with another class to listen to the radio
I was very surprised when I found out I was to listen to a broadcast by my Dad about life in the Sudan. I guess my parents must have told the school that it was on, I had no inkling about it.
I was even more surprised when my Dad told an exciting story about having to shoot a troublesome crocodile. Apparently his bearer had packed a shotgun instead of a rifle, so he blasted it with that into its mouth. Well, all the boys were very envious at having such a glamorous exciting father. You have to realise that my main impression of my Dad (who was about 40 when I was born) was sitting in his armchair smoking a pipe, or typing on his typewriter. I didn’t think he knew one end of a gun from the other.


The Sand Pits and our Trolley
Our drive led up to Bush Lane, and if you carried straight on, you were going down a steep path into the sand pits. These had originally been quarried for sand (where Send got its name), but were now disused and populated by trees and bushes among the sand slopes. I used to play there with my friends, and would often meet new friends there; it was a kind of common play area. Rodney and I made ourselves a trolley from some old pram wheels and a plank of wood, and used to race down the slope in it, sometimes alone, sometimes two up. I would often crouch face down, with my knees on the front plank, my hands steering the front wheels, and my face close to the ground. We would often come off at the bottom of the slope, sometimes ending up in stinging nettles, but it never stopped us. We also used to run around the estate where Rodney lived, using the trolley as a form of transport. Health and safety? Whats that? No brakes of course, except by dragging your feet on the ground. We used to climb trees a lot; Rodney was even more of a climber than I was. Once he was bouncing up and down on a branch when it broke off. He crashed down to the ground still on the branch, but wasn’t hurt a bit.


Woking Grammar School
After two years at Dane Court, my Dad ran out of money – he didn’t have a job, and writing and broadcasting were only sporadic, so I was sent to start at Woking grammar (having passed the eleven plus at Dane Court). My Dad still had ideas of putting me in for a Winchester scholarship, so he asked the school if I could skip a year, having done some French and Latin at prep school. So at the end of the first term they gave me some exams to do in French, Maths and so on. I had to sit on my own along the balcony above the assembly hall and do these exams after school, which I was not best pleased at. The only one I can remember was the maths exam, because there was a question using graphs (a quadratic actually). You were supposed to draw the graph and read off some values of y for a given x. I didn’t know what graphs were, but I found a method of computing y using what I later realised to be the method of differences (more or less). So I got fairly accurate answers. The master who marked the paper came and asked me how I got them, and I explained, but I don’t think he understood. He said ‘I see’ and walked away with a puzzled expression.
Anyway, I was moved up at half term to the second year, but in the ‘B’ stream, so I was now in 2B. Most of the boys were nearly 2 years older than me, because, being August born; I was the second youngest in my year anyway. Looking back on it, it seems a bit hard, but I coped OK after a while. It didn’t do much for my sporting activities though as I was so much smaller and younger. And I was decidedly not popular when I came top of the class after my first term in 2B. Happily I was then moved up into the A stream next year, where I settled in quite well.


The Cross Country Run
Every year the school organised a cross country run, split into junior and senior events, which everyone had to take part in. I actually got quite good at one stage. In my first year in the sixth form, when I was 15, I came 21st (out of over 200). But what sticks in my memory was the first time I ran it. At one point there was a stream we had to jump over. Being somewhat small, I didn't make it, and slipped into the stream. Problem was, when I got out one of my plimsolls (no trainers then) had slipped off. I fished around in the muddy stream for a while, but couldn't find it, so I ran the rest of the way with one plimsoll and one sock. My mum was not too pleased, as she had to buy me another pair. One of the teachers said (at the end of the race), that he could have given me a lift in his car. Pity he didn't say that sooner.


The Thin Line and Borehamwood studios
When I was quite young, about 8 maybe, my Dad sold the film rights of ‘The Thin Line’ (his only really successful book) to Associated British Pictures (aka ABP). As part of the deal he had to go to Elstree studios to work on the film script. He met several film starts there, including (I believe), Diana Dors. At one point he was quite friendly with a film director, and we were all invited to go to dinner at his house. I still recall that I ate Gnocchi for the first time in my life (obviously food was already becoming an important feature in my life).

 ABP were soon taken over by Warner Brothers, and they canned the film.  But, as I was to find out much later, the film did get made, both in Japan and France. We saw the French film ‘Juste Avant La Nuit’, directed by Claude Chabrol, many years later, with Bev and Patrick and family, when he was prof at Warwick University. I have a copy of the DVD which was released some time later. Then, a few years ago, Patrick was contacted by an American film director (not well known) who had made a film for channel 4 based on the characters in ‘Fargo’. He was interested in making a similar film based on ‘The Thin Line’ (nothing has come of it so far). He told me that the book had been filmed in Japan years ago (1966) called ‘The Stranger Within a Woman’, or  ‘Onna no naka ni iru tan’ as we like to say in Japan. But wait, there is more, it was remade in Japan in 2004 as ‘Onno no naka no futatsu no kao’. And also, into a Japanese TV film, see http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060786/?ref_=nv_sr_4 for more info. The reason behind all this shenanigans is the strange world of copyright brokers. The film rights had been sold to a Japanese company (I guess because they wanted to film it), and was then hawked around until Claude Chabrol came across it. We actually got a bit of money each because the holding company wanted to extend the copyright.


Rodney Laking

I used to make strong friends with a few boys over the years. For a long time my best friend was Rodney Laking, who lived on the old council estate up Send hill with his mum and dad and two younger sisters. Rodney went to St. Bedes, the comprehensive school at the end of our road (Bush Lane). He wasn’t the brightest of lads, but for some reason we got on well and spent a lot of time together. He was very into aircraft, and we used to go and watch the planes taking off and flying around at Fair Oaks, a local small private aerodrome. We would take sandwiches on a nice sunny day and sit for ages just watching the planes and enjoying the sun. We were also both into making model planes. I made lots, some of which were hanging up from my bedroom ceiling, a Hurricane, DH110, ME109. And I also made ones just for flying, mainly gliders and rubber band powered. One flew very well, and I took it to the local ‘rec’ (recreation ground). It ended up in a tree, and got broken in our attempts to bring it down by throwing things at it. I even followed Rodney in the ATC (air training corps), but I soon decided that it wasn’t for me. After a few years, Rodney’s father moved to a job with a house some distance away, and I lost touch after that. My mum and I bumped into him working at the W.H. Smiths on Waterloo station, he seemed quite grown up, but I never saw him again.

Friday, November 25, 2016

MY PROSPECTUS

JOE'S PROSPECTUS
I wrote this a while ago and posted on facebook, but not on my blog, so here it is. I intend to write in more detail on some of these issues.

I am not going to talk directly about Brexit or the current confusion in the government, but much more widely about the problems afflicting the UK's political system, and their possible solutions.
THE BASIC PROBLEM

Whether you are a leaver or a remainer, whether on the left, right or middle of British politics, most people would agree that there is something amiss in the state of the system right now.
Those on the left, whether old Trots, Unionists or young idealists (no disrespect) feel that the voice of the working poor, the unskilled, the uneducated, the unemployed, is being ignored.
Those on the right feel that their concerns over immigration and the stress it can cause on local communities, infrastructure and services is not being addressed.
And those in the centre are worried that the increasing discontent from all directions leaves us in a parlous state which distracts us from the business of improving our society.
And pretty much everyone feels that the gulf between those at the top, and those at the bottom of society has grown too large. And also that there is a large and widening gap between regions in the UK, especially London, which is almost becoming a separate state within a state. And there is a distrust of the affluence and influence of those in the city who control our financial sector.
Of course there are always differing views in the country, the far left and the far right are rarely going to see eye to eye on anything much, and our elections have always been split fairly evenly in terms of numbers.
But the current malaise runs deeper, with the growing feeling that there is a big disconnect between society and the body politic.
Our system, though adaptable, remains with its roots in the 19th and 20th centuries, and is showing the strain.
THE SOLUTIONS
A fresh approach to politics is needed. That does not mean violent (or even peaceful) revolution. Western democratic capitalism, with all its faults, is still the best socio economic model we have come up with so far. But ours needs modifying.
Firstly, we need to change the voting system. The well worn first past the post system has its benefits, but its faults are being glaringly exposed. The fact that large numbers of voters from left and right have no effective voice in Parliament is testament to this. We have tried, and failed, to adapt a proportional voting system. We must now grasp that nettle and make changes. A new system must be simple to understand and operate, and must give voice to differing views in society.
Our elections also suffer from the fact that, in this century, less than 70% of the electorate vote. This leads to a lack of clarity as to the legitimacy of the results, and the dilution of the democratic process. We should now adopt a policy similar to Australia and other countries, requiring everyone to vote in either a general election or a referendum.
Communication with the public should be enhanced using net based methods, not just by MPs tweeting their thoughts, but by well designed sites with simple explanations of pros and cons of public issues, and means of collecting public opinion in an ongoing way. This should help to avoid a gradual divergence between the population and their elected representatives.

HOUSING SHORTAGE AND HIGH COST
There are not enough houses in the UK. They are not being built fast enough. They are too expensive. Many young and not so young people have no hope of ever buying a house.

THE SOLUTIONS
Build more houses. Utilise modern fast building methods. Increase the use of well planned high rise units.
Provide capital with a mix of government and free market sources, and establish new foundations funded by high wealth individuals and corporations. Simplify planning systems (again!).
Make house builders free up dormant land banks by charging for them to keep them idle.
The wealthy are now very wealthy. The UK has over 100 billionaires, with a total wealth of over £300 billion. These people are not to be pilloried or punished, but they should also reflect that their wealth ultimately derives from the rest of society. They (may) have created great wealth, now it is their responsibility to use it wisely. There is a limit to how much people can spend on 
themselves and their families without abusing their wealth.
There is a fine tradition from Carnegie and Rockefeller to Bill Gates that great wealth should be sensibly distributed for the benefit of the society in which they flourished.
Individuals have set up charitable foundations. These should be enhanced and encouraged by the government under an overall foundation scheme. Contributions from government, individuals and corporations, large and small, should be used to provide infrastructure and services for the benefit of all. Contributions from the public should be encouraged using web based crowd funding services. PR and marketing skills should be used along with social media to put moral pressure on these people and organisations to see this as an opportunity to meet their debt to society.
Those wealthy individuals and corporations who seek to avoid paying their fair share of taxation should be made to do so by a combination of legislation and international cooperation; but also encouragement using social media skills. Carrot and stick often works best. Excessive bonus systems should be discouraged by taxing them (above a sensible threshold) at a much higher rate.

EDUCATION AND SKILLS
Too many graduates with non marketable skills have been left with large loans and no graduate level jobs. Emphasis must be changed from increasing numbers to better matching skills to demand.
Greater use must be made of efficient low cost means such as MOOCs, and computer based methods as in the Khan academy. A wider mix of courses including skills based ones must be provided. For student still wishing to take the resident university route, a system of sponsorship as in Russia should be used to provide students with funds in return for a 2 year placement with an employer, thus providing them with needed employees and the students with jobs.
Non job targeted education such as the arts should still be supported by government, sponsors, and foundations as discussed previously.

OVERCROWDING, POPULATION DENSITY AND IMMIGRATION
This issue cannot be ignored. The UK is a very densely populated country, especially in the south east, and that density is increasing. This can undoubtedly put a strain on housing, infrastructure and services. We have traditionally not been good at spending on our infrastructure since the Victorians, and the strain is showing. Our airports, roads and rail networks are operating at almost maximum capacity - sometimes in excess of that. Health and education services are sometimes pushed over already stretched capacity, causing local unrest and potential conflicts.
THE SOLUTIONS
Some control over immigration is needed. A sensible upper limit should be set, with a careful points based system to allow those that we need to enter. Students, health workers, educators, scientists, engineers, and some low paid must all be catered for.
 
Local hot spots will need special assistance from central government to ameliorate transition periods. On line tools should be used to educate and introduce new immigrants to the UKs language, laws, customs, locations, jobs and opportunities. Lack of language need not be a problem, tablets can be used by children and babies.
INFRASTRUCTURE HOUSING AND TRANSPORT
Housing stock must be improved rapidly, but intelligently. We should utilise latest ideas in TOD (Transit Oriented Development) to ensure houses are built with transport hubs in mind.
Our infrastructure badly needs attention. Any engineer knows that you need to get the basic architecture and infrastructure right to build any system. Other things can be adjusted, but infrastructure is a long term investment that brings benefits for years to come. We have to improve our road and rail networks, however the costs are raised and paid for.
But we need to be aware of the latest developments for our future needs. Electric autonomous vehicles will need a different approach to road traffic density, control, speed limits, distribution and parking. Just in Time (JIT) delivery systems can be revolutionised by using smaller packets and vehicles. Companies like Uber, Lyft, Tesla, Google, Apple? will redefine the customer car relationship.
We need to take seriously new technologies like Hyperloop which are using new materials to change the way we think about transport.
But whatever technologies, we need an integrated approach to transport. That does not mean we have to nationalise the rail and bus networks, but anyone who has travelled in Europe knows that better systems than ours can and do exist. The approach to leave it all to free market forces has resulted in a disjointed mess. Some highlights like the TFL (Transport for London) web site show what can be done. Use of web based services must provide people with end to end transport solutions rather than piecemeal and difficult journeys.

THE FUTURE OF JOBS AND WORK
The rapid and exponential growth in technology, especially AI/deep learning, robotics, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, nanotech, biotech and big data is going to lead us into an era where there are far fewer jobs. This will be good news for some - those in high skill work, but bad for the rest.
Many solutions have been proposed, but it seems we must plan for some kind of universal income before too long. And we should start now.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Climate change is a global issue that we must play our part in. But sustainable energy is also a win win solution. Great advances in technology are driving down the costs of wind and solar, and increasing their efficiency. New battery tech is enabling realistic local power storage. Reduced dependence on carbon fuels improves resilience and clean air. Electric vehicles could offer a distributed power storage mechanism.
We must push forward rapidly by enabling grants and incentives to drive this change.But we can never be completely dependent on wind and solar; we need to consider nuclear. Small modular reactors look to be a promising way forward, and we must continue our efforts to move down this road.
Involvement in new technologies for sustainable energy not only benefits our energy policy, but enhances UK plc as a global player in this growing market.
There are many other issues I have not discussed. Running a country is not easy. But in my experience, if you get the basic fundamentals right, then other problems tend to fall into place and are easier to deal with. I have tried to identify those key areas that must be dealt with, and their solutions.



UK income inequality is among the highest in the developed world and evidence shows that this is bad for almost everyone.

EQUALITYTRUST.ORG.UK

Thursday, November 24, 2016

SOME MORE THOUGHTS ON TRUMP

SOME MORE THOUGHTS ON TRUMP

In some ways I’m fascinated by this guy. I don’t like, him; I don’t trust him, but I suspect he’s not as stupid as he appears.  Mind you, I’m not saying he’s intelligent either.

We have to understand that he is a salesman and a businessman. He will say anything to shift the product, and he’s pretty good at it. But at bottom, he doesn’t have any. That is, he does not have any strong beliefs or values (not many anyway), and will blow with the wind if he needs to. That is both a strength and a weakness of course.

He has already shifted his position since winning the election (well, the electoral college, apparently Hilary’s lead in the popular vote is now over 2 million). Now he says that there may be some connection between global warming and human activity. Well, that’s a start. Obviously he now has to talk to some people who actually know what they are talking about. It’s one thing to spout nonsense on the hustings, but another when you are talking to the heads of major scientific and medical institutions. They might start contradicting you.

Oh, and he isn’t going to prosecute Hilary after all, in fact he really likes the Clintons, honestly.
Oh, and he’s going to keep quite a lot of Obamacare, I mean he didn’t really understand it before he had that chat with Obama, and learnt a few things about reality.

Oh, and he isn’t going to build a wall after all, I mean did anyone take that seriously?

Oh, and he now supports the electoral college; he thinks it’s great. Before the election he thought it was ‘a disaster for democracy’. See how quickly he can change his mind, flexible or what?

In fact, on almost any issue you can find videos online of him contradicting himself. ‘I’m very pro life’, and also ‘I’m very pro choice’.  ‘I was the only one against invading Iraq’, then ‘Are you for invading Iraq - yes, I guess so’. See what he’s doing here; he’s saying whatever he thinks you want to hear. It’s an old trick, but successful none the less. In fact, some people on line say that the best person to contradict Trump is himself.


But on the whole I think it’s a good thing that he is distancing himself from some of his most ridiculous utterings, and he is appointing some good people to his team. Mind you, some are very dubious. It’s not good when your team includes people who don’t believe in climate change or evolution.

Of course all this does not decry the fact that most of the rest of the world thinks that the U.S. has taken leave of its senses. Their position as leaders of the free world is hard to take seriously when they elect a president who is halfway between a crook and a clown.


On the other hand, as Werner Herzog pointed out on Kermode and Mayo last week, most people though Ronald Reagan was a bit of a clown when he was elected. But then, as Werner also pointed out, he had been governor of California, so he knew a little bit about politics. Whereas Donald knows zilch. Hey ho, give him four years then can we please get back to reality as opposed to reality television.

Oh, and by the way, is it just coincidence that there is this definition in the OED:

b. To give forth a trumpet-like sound; spec. to break wind audibly (slang or vulgar)

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

SOME THOUGHTS ON ISIS AND PARIS

There have been a lot of comments on social media since the events in Paris, and many of them are confused and ill informed. I would like to try and address that here.
(I will use ISIS though some prefer ISIL or DAESH)

Firstly it is necessary to reflect on the horror and pain of the deaths caused by those deluded young men, who we assume, firmly believed that their actions would lead them to some imagined paradise.

Though, as someone who has read a bit of history, especially the history of violence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature)
 It is necessary to put such an event into context. It is salutary to realise that roughly 1,000,000 people die every year in road accidents. And there have been countless times in the history of civilisation where more than 10,000 people have met violent deaths in a single day.

Bu still, in the modern world, and especially in capitalist democracies, this was a shockingly violent day which left many people dead, injured and grieving.

Why did ISIS do it?
It seems clear that ISIS is suffering militarily as a result of air strikes by the U.S., Russia, France and others. They are also losing ground to forces from the Kurds and the Syrians.
This is leading them to increase soft target terrorist attacks in western countries.


It also has to be realized that there has been a tendency among some in the Middle East to blame the West, especially the UK and the US (the great Satan) for all their problems, ever since the creation of Israel, and maybe before that. At the same time there is a concurrent and conflicting acknowledgement that their tendency to drink coffee and argue rather than deal with the problem is also a factor. But it does give some young hot headed men a preference for attacking the West. And those confused by religious messages can turn themselves into suicide bombers.

What is bad about ISIS?
ISIS wants to establish a caliphate over a large swathe of the Middle East, or the whole world if it could. This area would be ruled by medieval laws which suppress women almost as non beings (no education or work, or rights), use violence and fear, create nothing of value to the rest of the world and consider life on earth to be nothing but preparation for an after-life of their choosing. They consider the Koran to contain all knowledge, and so seek no further. They believe they must eventually be victorious because Allah, of course, is on their side. They are an evolutionary dead end in the life of this planet.


Terrorism is not new. ISIS is one of a long and somewhat undistinguished line. Remember EOKA, the Mau Mau, PLO, IRA, Tamil Tigers, Baader Meinhof, Carlos the Jackal and many many others.

The sad truth is though, that in the long run, terrorism does not work. It can some have minor temporary influence, but in the perspective of history it is just a blip


What should the response be?
Negotiate? With who? ISIS is not a nation state. It has no coherent internal integrity. There is nobody you could reliably negotiate with. Would be like trying to nail a jelly to the ceiling. There is no position that ISIS would accept that would be acceptable to the rest of the world. And really they have no need to negotiate, because of course they have Allah.
Leave ISIS alone to do their worst? Could be bad, very bad.

Carry on trying to degrade their capabilities, and hope the Kurds and Syrians (and Turks?) will see them off?

Tackle them head on with an allied ground army of sufficient power to eliminate them as a military force?

Of course this has its dangers and its problems. Solving the world’s problems is not easy. That is why politics is harder than rocket science. And it is natural for people to be reluctant to engage in warfare. I seem to recall that many/most? people in the US did not want to get involved in WWI or II. Come to that, many in the UK did not see it as necessary – that Mr. Hitler wasn’t so bad really. Why not negotiate with him?

I just ask the question, I leave the answer to you. For a more detailed discussion see:

What is the moral issue?
It is worth revisiting the moral philosophy example of the bad man in your street.
You know that along your street there is a man who lives on benefits, beats up his wife, abuses his children, trashes his garden, threatens his neighbours, and contributes nothing but aggravation to the community.

What do you do?

Leave him alone, it’s not your problem?

Report him to the police / social authorities?

Admittedly, this can be a tough problem. If you live in a lawless area, and he has a loaded shotgun and an AAK47, you may realistically hesitate to act.


But I suspect most of us would agree what the ‘Right’ course of action would be.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Economics 1.0


Economics is tricky. It’s an old joke which I have used before, and I’ll use again, that if you ask 5 economists a question, you’ll get 6 different answers. There are several reasons for this, and one of the main ones is that economics depends on people, and people can be perverse, unpredictable, and just plain awkward.

But there are some fundamentals to economics that are not too difficult to understand, but many (I’m tempted to say most) simply do not. And the reason for this is that these principles are in some ways opposed to common sense.

There are myths about economics which you often hear people say, and I will try and explain here why the main one is incorrect.

Myth: “You cannot continue to have increasing economic growth in a world with finite resources.” Sounds reasonable, but it is not.

First, let’s talk a little about the magic mnemonic GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This is almost always the number that is mentioned when economic activity or growth is discussed. Roughly speaking it measures the amount of economic activity in a country. It does have one quite large snag though: it doesn’t measure the ‘black economy’ – activity that is under the radar because it is not recorded, and does not attract taxation. The black economy can be anywhere between about 5% and 50%, or more. The average is supposed to be about 13%, but this is a bit of a guestimate.

Also, GDP grows as inflation grows, so this has to be taken into account to get a realistic figure.

In fact, it is usually the rate of increase (or decrease) in GDP that is quoted – currently around 3% for the UK, 7% for China, so the absolute GDP value is arguably of less interest.
So there are 3 separate ways in which GDP grows (apart from inflation), the 3 steps to economic heaven J

1   1.    Increase in population
2   2.    Trade and Commerce
3   3.    Productivity and Technology

Let’s look at these in turn.

1.         Obviously, if there are more people in a country, there is likely to be more GDP. This is why GDP per head of population is often used to compare economies, though of course it depends on what you are trying to analyse. GDP of the US is around $16 trillion, that of China is around $8 trillion (2012), but China’s population is about four times that of the US, so GDP per head in the US is around 8 times that in China. But there is (probably) a limit on how many people can live in a country, so GDP growth by this means is limited. Note that this kind of growth does imply an increase in the use of resources – more people, more food, more energy, more goods.

2.         This is the tricky one. Economics is not a Zero Sum Game. This sounds technical, and it is a bit. It comes from something called Game Theory. When I was about 16, I got a book out of the local library called ‘The Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour’, by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. John Von Neumann was a prolific mathematician and general mover and shaker. He did seminal work in computing and quantum mechanics as well as game theory. The book was above my technical abilities and determination – it was a big book, and I soon took it back. Thankfully, there is a simpler way of putting this idea which many people are familiar with – a Win Win. The point is that an economic transaction can benefit both parties (individuals, companies, nations); so that both are better off than before. This may not be obvious, so let’s have a look at a very simple example.

Consider a small island with 2 men on it, separate from each other. The first man keeps chickens, and lives on a diet of chickens and eggs. He has all he needs, and a surplus is no use to him – he can’t keep it, and doesn’t need it. The second man grows corn. He keeps a small surplus to plant next year.

Now one day they meet, and arrange a trade of one chicken and a basket of eggs for a sack of corn. Both are now better off, they have a much improved diet, and a way of using their surplus. The essential point is that some things are worth more to some people than others.

This has spawned huge global trades – just think of the silk trade, the spice trade, the slave trade (OK, better not). It also depends on the fact that some people are better at some things than others – also see next section. From this small but powerful principle, global trade has brought continued increases in GDP, along with:

3.         One man with a horse can plough maybe an acre a day (obviously depends on many factors). With a modern tractor, he can plough about 30 acres. That is an increase in productivity, and so one man can increase his GDP by a factor of 30. The percentage of the population needed to farm has shrunk from more than 50% to less than 1%. Productivity can increase without improvements in technology, by improved learning, training, specialisation and organisation. But technology is the ultimate driving force behind productivity improvement. (Steam power, combustion engine, electricity, computing, internet).

So, that is a very brief journey through the factors behind economic growth. The main point I am making here is that growth can occur without increase in population or use of resources.


Now it may be that we cannot continue to have increases in trade and productivity indefinitely, although that is a tricky question. Read Ray Kurzweil if you want to see why technology can continue to increase as far as we can see.

It has been said that ‘Technology has its own agenda’, which is to say that it will continue to increase whether we intend it to or not. Its hard to stop. Once the genie is out of the bottle, you can’t put it back (or Pandora’s box if you prefer). But it is simply incorrect to assume that lack of resources will cause economic growth to cease.